Mortgage Rate Update, June 9, 2011

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.  Today’s market activity will find its muse early and it will likely inspire the direction of trades throughout the day.  The Weekly Jobs Report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.  At the same time European Central Bank President jean-Claude Trichet will discuss the ECB decision to hold interest rates unchanged.

Mortgage Rate Trend Direction:     Neutral
Economic Reports/Rate Impact:    Weekly Jobless Claims, 8:30 AM ET, Moderate Rate Impact
Key News:                                             ECB Rates and Plan for Greece

Summary
We finally have meaningful data to consider today with the issuance of the Weekly Jobless Claims report.  For those that have contended that the “soft patch” the US economy is temporary, good news would be a welcome sign.  Unfortunately, these folks will have to wait a little longer as the jobless claims report was still weak—weaker than expected.  Nevertheless, the market seems to want to rally back after recent losses so mortgage rates will likely hold close to current levels today.

Impact of economic reports
The jobs market is very weak and there are no signs of improvement.  This should be a very troubling factor for the markets today—yet in early trading it appears that the report is not having a very big impact.  

Impact of international or political events
The decision by the ECB to hold rates steady, but hint at a coming rate increase in the near future, is supportive of stock market growth today.  Consequently, despite bad jobs numbers today it appears that mortgage rates will stay close to current levels or even tick slightly higher.

The ECB is also a major player in the discussions over the Greek debt crisis.  ECB President Trichet did not give much insight into the final resolution of the crisis, but did suggest that Greece would be receiving the loans it needs to meet July obligations very soon.