Mortgage Rates: New Lows Again Today?, June 24, 2010

Mortgage Rate Trend Direction           Down
Economic Reports/Rate Impact          Durable Goods, 8:30 AM ET, High Rate Impact
                                                                  Jobless Claims, 8:30 AM ET, Moderate Rate Impact
Key News                                                European Currency/Debt status
 
Summary
 
Record lows were reached yesterday in mortgage pricing. The statement from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting reaffirmed the commitment to low rates for an “extended period”. It went on to express concern over the economic growth in the US and the on-going debt crisis in Europe. Today as the Fed’s comments have been analyzed across the globe, stock markets are down and the “flight to safety” of bonds has been clear. In times of slow economic growth, investors tend to prefer the more certain returns of debt investments (bonds) relative to equity (stock) investments. 
 
The Durable Goods and Jobless Claims reports released early this morning are likely to provide the initial direction for mortgage rates today. Mortgage rates will likely start the day below their finish yesterday, seeking new historic lows. An afternoon auction of 7-year US Treasury notes may provide further direction
 
Impact of economic data released today

Durable Goods Orders provide a look at the appetite of consumers for large ticket items such as autos, refrigerators and other such products. Positive orders are an indication that consumers are confident about their prospects going forward and willing to make expensive purchases. The Jobless Claims report shows whether jobs are still being lost, or if the economy is growing sufficiently to maintain and create jobs. The reports both showed continuing US economic weakness. These reports support lower mortgage pricing.
 
Impact of international or political events
 
The debt issues of European nations and the associated weakness in the common European currency, the euro continues to be the most significant economic issue internationally. No specific news or events related to this topic grabbed attention overnight. World leaders are preparing for this weekend’s G20 meetings of the world’s largest economies that will be held in Toronto. Any news emerging during the day could drive mortgage rates.

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