Could 2009 Give Us an Economic Recovery?

In the closing days of 2008, a year fraught with economic turmoil, there are enormous efforts to make 2009 a year of recovery. Is there reason for hope?

Curiously enough, the dialogue of hope is no longer emanating from the Obama/Biden camp. In fact, as the President and Vice-President elect prepare for office there are tones of lowering expectations. Obama is measuring the recovery in "years, not months" and Biden is heralding a simple goal, "keeping the economy from absolutely tanking."

However, despite the positioning of politicians there are reasons to think the 2009 economy may recover ahead of schedule.

Economic recovery hinges on a few fundamental factors: housing recovery, job stimulus, and stable consumer prices. Fortunately, these all seem to be in the cards for 2009.

• Housing Recovery. You need to look no further than last week to see what motivates consumers back into the housing and mortgage markets--really low mortgage rates. Mortgage applications surged on the Federal Reserve actions to lower benchmark rates and buy billions in mortgage-backed securities. These actions and more are promised by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke throughout 2009.

• Job Stimulus. President-elect Obama is mounting an aggressive plan to make job stimulus a central priority. Announcing early planning for $750 billion to $1 trillion to be invested over the next two years to create 3 million new jobs. This job stimulus package is thought to be full of infrastructure improvements in transportation, broadband, and green technology. This should pt the breaks on the currently projected 3.5 million in 2009 job losses.

• Price Stability. Long gone is the notion of inflation that sooked most economist in the late summer. Mostly driven by skyrocketing gas prices. Now, with oil below $40 a barrel prices, gas prices have follow steeply below $2.00 and some economist are predicting $1.00 a gallon in the future. This will keep prices of goods and services low and boost consumers own cash-flow in early 2009.

So, despite the gloom of politicians and media it looks like 2009 may be shaping up to give us a recovery faster than many expect.